Methodology & Data Sources
Transparent insights into how we collect data, calculate ROI, and estimate financial outcomes for students.
Primary Data Sources
U.S. Department of Education College Scorecard
The core dataset for institution-level metrics including average annual costs, graduation rates, student diversity, and program-level debt. We also utilize their "Field of Study" data to map specific academic programs to median earnings.
Source: College Scorecard Institution and Field of Study data, October 2026 releaseThe book uses the March 2026 release. Its edition of this tool stays online atcollegeroi.org/roi-book.
School earnings are the median pay of graduates five years after they finish. College Scorecard's own school pages show the figure for four years after. We use five years because in October 2026 the Department of Education found that its four-year school figure counted some graduate students as undergraduates, at schools that also offer graduate degrees, and it did not update that figure in the October release (the Department's errata). The five-year figure was updated. Program earnings stay on the four-year figure, which the errata did not affect, so programs are compared only with other programs. The earnings benchmark for each kind of school is the median five-year figure across operating schools of that kind, calculated from College Scorecard data, because Scorecard publishes a benchmark only for the four-year figure. Schools that award only graduate degrees show no undergraduate earnings. What changed in each release and why.
U.S. Census Bureau (PUMS)
The American Community Survey's Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) records each person's college major, job and wages. From the 2020–2024 five-year sample we compute each major's median wage at three career stages: entry (ages 22 to 27), prime age (35 to 54) and experienced (45 to 60), in 2024 dollars.
Source: American Community Survey 2020–2024 Public Use Microdata Sample, via IPUMS USA, University of MinnesotaBureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
For each occupation on a major's page, we show the Bureau of Labor Statistics' projected job growth and annual openings for 2025 to 2035 and its national median wage.
Source: BLS Employment Projections, 2025–2035Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Labor market statistics for recent college graduates, including underemployment rates and median wages for early-career vs. mid-career graduates.
Source: The Labor Market for Recent College GraduatesCalculation Methodology
Return on Investment (ROI)
Our primary ROI metric is the difference between the NPV Lifetime Earnings after Costs and Taxes of the college graduate and a high school graduate.
Key Assumptions
- Discount Rate7.8%Adjusts future earnings to present-day value.
- Wage Growth2.0% / yearEstimated annual real salary growth.
- Cost Inflation5.6% / yearAnnual increase in tuition/attendance costs.
- Career WindowAge 18–65Standard working lifetime simulation.
Program length
Each school is priced at the length of its predominant credential: one year for certificate schools, two for associate, four for bachelor's. The College Scorecard reports one earnings figure for all of a school's graduates. At a school that mostly awards certificates or associate degrees but also awards longer degrees, that figure includes graduates of the longer programs. When such a school's Social ROI reaches 1,000% or its Pell ROI reaches 250%, its pages carry a warning.
Programs we don't score
Each program's earnings come from the College Scorecard and describe past graduates who received federal aid. Our model assumes a student who begins a certificate or associate degree right after high school, or a master's right after a bachelor's. Some programs mostly enroll people who already hold a degree or years of experience, and their pay reflects that. When a certificate, associate or master's program pays more than 10% above a higher credential in the same field at the same school, and at least 1.5 times the national median for its own credential, we show its earnings but not a Lifetime Value Added, and we leave it out of rankings. Today that covers 49 of about 49,000 programs. Branch campuses that report one shared set of earnings are counted once.
Taxes & Deductions
We simulate after-tax income to provide a realistic "Net Income" view. Our model applies:
- Federal Income Tax: 2026 IRS single-filer brackets (Rev. Proc. 2025-32) by default. The calculators can switch to 2025 brackets (Rev. Proc. 2024-40, as amended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act). The book's figures use the 2025 tables published before that law, and the book edition of this tool keeps them at collegeroi.org/roi-book.
- FICA Taxes: 6.2% Social Security up to the wage base ($184,500 in 2026, $176,100 in 2025), plus 1.45% Medicare, rising to 2.35% on wages over $200,000.
- Standard Deduction: $16,100 in 2026 ($15,750 in 2025), subtracted before federal income tax.
Data Timing
Definitions
- Break-even Age
- The age at which the cumulative net earnings of a college graduate surpass those of a high school graduate.
- Gov. Pell Grant ROI
- Measures the government's return on Pell Grants via increased tax revenue. Calculated as the portion of incremental lifetime taxes (discounted at 5.4%) attributed to the Pell Grant investment.
- Lifetime Value Added
- The difference between the NPV Lifetime Earnings after Costs and Taxes of the college graduate and a high school graduate.
- Net Present Value (NPV)
- The value of all future cash flows (positive and negative) over the entire life of an investment discounted to the present.
- Social Impact ROI
- A measure of the societal return on a philanthropic investment (donation), comparing the graduate's increased lifetime earnings to the cost of the donation.