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The Study That Got Halfway There
Read more: The Study That Got Halfway ThereA new college-value study making the rounds fixed three flaws skeptics spent years flagging, then stopped before the money math. Discount its own headline number at my 7.8 percent rate and $86,806 becomes about $24,800. The debate is not over. It finally has its real starting point.
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The Doubt Everyone Explained Away
Read more: The Doubt Everyone Explained AwayThe famous college payoff is $1.2 million. A study that controls for who goes to college cuts its own estimate of that payoff by about 30 percent. Price it like an investment and the median degree turns negative. Even some of the smartest people in the field, evidence in hand, were so convinced of the…
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A Degree Is Not a Treasury Bond
Read more: A Degree Is Not a Treasury BondThe discount-rate fight decides only whether the median graduate wins. A degree cannot be discounted like a Treasury bond, and even a generous 3 percent rate leaves nearly a third of four-year colleges underwater at full price. The problems underneath never move with the rate.
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Compared to What?
Read more: Compared to What?Sort Georgetown’s ROI rankings by the forty-year column and the lowest number in it is positive $361,000. In their most recent year, the ten-year column runs to negative $157,000. Same schools, same data. The sign is the window, not the school. Ask the question the table never does: compared to what?
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Auditing the Numbers That Say College Pays
Read more: Auditing the Numbers That Say College PaysI audited the numbers that say college pays. The million dollars is not a return at all, and even the careful 12.5 percent skips taxes and hides a wide spread.